LEARNODDS & PROBABILITY

Why −110 at One Sportsbook Is Not the Same as −120

Two almost-identical prices demand clearly different win rates. The pick is the same; the bet is not.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

−110 breaks even at 52.4%. −120 breaks even at 54.5%. That 2.1-point gap doesn’t sound like much — until you put it against how thin the edges in these markets actually are.

Do the subtraction

If your model makes a prop 55%: at −110 the edge is +2.6 points; at −120 it’s +0.5. One is a bet worth considering. The other is noise. Same prediction, different bets.

MODEL 55.0% · AT −110 → +2.6 PP EDGE · AT −120 → +0.5 PP (ILLUSTRATIVE)

Compounding

Price gaps don’t average out over a season; they accumulate. Line shopping isn’t a habit of hobbyists — it’s the first discipline of anyone treating prices as prices.

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EXPECTED VALUE & MARKETS · 2 MIN

Compare the market yourself.

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