LEARNMODELS

How Bettorwise Grades a Signal

A Signal is the gap between model probability and no-vig market consensus. Grades scale with the gap — and most lines get a PASS.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

Bettorwise computes the no-vig consensus across books, runs the model, and subtracts. The result is a Signal in percentage points: +6.3 means the model likes the Over 6.3 points more than the market does.

MODEL 58.9% · MARKET 52.6% → SIGNAL +6.3 PP → GRADE A (ILLUSTRATIVE)

Why thresholds exist

Small gaps live inside the noise of both the market and the model. Bettorwise only grades what clears it: A at 4.0 points or more, B at 2.5, C at 1.2. Below that — PASS.

What a grade is not

A grade is not a confidence level and not a promise. It measures disagreement with the market. The market is usually right; the grade exists for the times the model has a reason to believe it isn’t.

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A calibrated model says 60% and it happens about 60% of the time. Calibration is checkable — which is exactly why it matters.

MODELS · 2 MIN03What Does No-Vig Mean?

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Compare the market yourself.

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