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Model Probability vs Sportsbook Probability

Market probability and model probability answer different questions. The gap between them is where analysis begins.

2 MIN READ · BETTORWISE RESEARCH · EXAMPLES MARKED AS ILLUSTRATIVE

Market probability is what the crowd implies once the vig is removed — thousands of participants, one price. Model probability is an independent forecast built from inputs: minutes, usage, matchup, pace.

Neither one is the truth

The market can be wrong; that’s why it moves. The model can be wrong; that’s why it’s graded and versioned. The interesting question is never which is right — it’s how far apart they are.

MARKET 52.6% · MODEL 58.9% · GAP +6.3 PP (ILLUSTRATIVE)

A gap is not a bet

A model edge becomes expected value only at a specific price. +6.3 points is interesting at −122 and irrelevant at −160. Divergence first, price second, decision third.

RELATED READING

01What Does No-Vig Mean?

Both sides of a market include a bookmaker’s margin. Remove it — de-vig the line — and the market’s real opinion appears.

ODDS & PROBABILITY · 2 MIN02What Is Expected Value in Sports Betting?

Expected value is the arithmetic answer to “Is this price worth it?” — probability times payoff, minus risk.

EXPECTED VALUE & MARKETS · 2 MIN03How Bettorwise Grades a Signal

A Signal is the gap between model probability and no-vig market consensus. Grades scale with the gap — and most lines get a PASS.

MODELS · 2 MIN

Compare the market yourself.

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